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Advancing Land Cover/Land Use Characteristics in Short-Range Numerical Weather Prediction Systems for Urban Areas
Project Start Date
05/05/2025
Project End Date
05/05/2028

Team Members:

Person Name Person role on project Affiliation
Andrea E. Gaughan Principal Investigator University of Louisville, Louisville, USA
Abstract

The proposed work will advance the estimation of land use characteristics from remotely sensed data and how they are incorporated into short-range numerical weather prediction systems for urban environments and their surroundings. In addressing sub-elements of the A.2 Land Cover/Land Use Change (LCLUC) call focused specifically on land use data and boundary elements of models and sub-models of Land-Earth System Digital Twins, we intend to accomplish four specific sub-objectives: 1) Incorporate multi-sensor, -seasonal, and -resolution satellite imagery to create land cover and parameter datasets appropriate for uses in large eddy simulation (LES), numerical weather prediction models; 2) Perform simulations within a primary study area of Louisville, KY using LES to determine appropriate spatial aggregations of remotely-sensed data into the lower boundary conditions and determine model sensitivity to these different data; 3) Compare simulations to in situ field reference data values captured by a micronet of meteorological stations; and 4) Use simulations to study urban-heat-island mitigation efforts in the downtown urban study area and use these simulations to test how future interventions might function in this and other urban contexts. Methodologically, we will construct multi-resolution collections of remotely-sensed data, from a variety of platforms, suitable for estimating fractional, sub-pixel coverage estimates for multiple aggregations of land use/cover using machine learning for classification and modeling. These data will enter into boundary layer components of numerical weather simulation models, from which historical weather simulations will be constructed and compared with past and current data collected from a variety of ground-based sources. The veracity of the simulations will be tested against a modernized network of meteorological sensors distributed across the project domain. The proposed modernization of the network will consist of updates to 20 existing micronet stations, including aspirated radiation shields and cellular data transmission to prioritize the accurate representation and real-time collection of air temperature. In addition to modernizing the existing stations, ten easily deployable all-in-one weather sensors will be added to the micronet. These stations will be reserved for poorly sampled areas within the domain or local climate zones (LCZs) with low representation. While this experimental design will primarily support the validation of the LES model, it will also serve a wide range of projects aimed at understanding the influence of the urban landscape on the planetary boundary layer. Together, these methods and objectives situate the research as extremely responsive to the current LCLUC call for providing new ways to incorporate remotely sensed data into sub-elements of Land-Earth System Digital Twins (L-ESDTs), specifically focused on weather generating mechanisms and boundary layer interfaces, a highlighted NASA Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program Use Case. While we use Louisville, KY as a case study for sensitivity and validation, these methods and applications will be directly relevant to models for urban environments across developed contexts and scales.