Land Abandonment in Russia: Understanding Recent Trends and Assessing Future Vulnerability and Adaptation to Changing Climate and Population Dynamics

Project Start Date

01/10/2011

Project End Date

01/09/2013

Grant Number

08-LCLUC08-2-0002

Project Call Name

Earth Observing System

Science Theme Name

Predictive Land Use Modeling

Climate Variability and Change

Vulnerability, Adaptation

Drivers of Change

Regional_Initiative_Name

Northern Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative

Region

European Russia

Europe

Solicitation

LCLUC-08

Team Members:

Person Name	Person role on project	Affiliation
Kirsten de Beurs	Principal Investigator	Wageningen University and Research, , Netherlands
Geoffrey Henebry	Co-Investigator	Michigan State University, East Lansing, USA
Grigory Loffe	Co-Investigator	Radford University, Radford, United States
Tatyana Nefedova	Collaborator	Institute of Geography, , Russia

Abstract

Russia's population is projected to shrink by a staggering 29% by 2050. Differential dynamics among rural populations are correlated with ethnicity, natural condition and remoteness of large cities and constitute a key driver in the spatial disintegration of rural Russia. Currently, Russia is slowly transitioning into a country with an internal 'archipelago' of islands of productive agriculture around cities set within a matrix of much less productive and abandoned croplands. This heterogeneous spatial pattern is mainly driven by depopulation of the least favorable parts of the countryside, where 'least favorable' is some function of lower fertility of land, higher remoteness from urban markets, or both. This project investigates potential sustainable productivity of remaining croplands under climatic and demographic changes. Our aim is to improve current understanding of the interactions of climate change and the spatio-temporal impacts of agricultural reform in European Russia. We propose to model land abandonment based on (1) past abandonment estimates retrieved from satellite imagery, (2) age-structured population models, and (3) spatially structured metapopulation models using socio-demographic data, distance to major population centers, and bioclimatic potential derived from a combination of current temperature and moisture regimes retrieved from spaceborne sensors and predicted future regimes from IPCC AR4 models. We will investigate three scenarios: A1B and B1 project drastic decreases in the Russian population by 2050, but A2 projects minor changes. Our modeling approach will predict how possible future climates could influence abandonment patterns in Russia and how adaptive strategies could affect rural re-colonization and re-cultivation patterns. This work is innovative because it will treat the population dynamics of different ethnic groups as an endogenous component of the land cover land use change system and provide increased understanding of both the effect of population size and composition as well as changing climate on land abandonment patterns in Russia.

Project Documents

de Beurs KM, and GM Henebry. 2008a. Northern Annular Mode effects on the land surface phenologies of Northern Eurasia. Journal of Climate 21:4257-4279.

de Beurs KM, and GM Henebry. 2008b. War, drought, and phenology: Changes in the land surface phenology of Afghanistan since 1982. Journal of Land Use Science 3(2-3): 95-111.

de Beurs KM, and GM Henebry. 2010. A land surface phenology assessment of the northern polar regions using MODIS reflectance time series. Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing 36(Suppl. 1): S87–S110. [Special Issue on International Polar Year]

de Beurs KM, and GM Henebry. 2010. Spatio-temporal statistical methods for modeling land surface phenology. In: (IL Hudson and MR Keatley, eds.) Phenological Research: Methods for Environmental and Climate Change Analysis. Springer: New York. Chapter 9, pp. 177-208.

de Beurs KM, CK Wright, and GM Henebry. 2009. Dual scale trend analysis distinguishes climatic from anthropogenic effects on the vegetated land surface. Environmental Research Letters, 4:045012.

Doubková, M. and GM Henebry. 2005. Assessing land surface dynamics across the Nebraska Sand Hills using Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) data products. Pecora 16 Proceedings, paper 25.

Friedl, M, G Henebry, B Reed, A Huete, M White, J Morisette, R Nemani, X Zhang, and R Myneni. 2006. Land Surface Phenology. A Community White Paper requested by NASA. April 10.

Henebry, GM, and M Doubková. 2007. Land surface phenologies sensed by cooler earthlight: how passive microwave image series can reveal vegetation dynamics appropriate for landscape monitoring. In: (R.G.H. Bunce, R.H.G. Jongman, L. Hojas, and S. Weel, eds.) 25 Years of Landscape Ecology: Science Principles in Practice. Proceedings of the 7th IALE World Congress 8-12 July, Wageningen, The Netherlands. IALE Publication series 4. pp 1071-1072, volume 2.

Henebry, GM. 2009. Carbon in idle croplands. Nature 457:1089-1090.

Ioffe, G. and Z. Zayonchkovskaya, 2010 Immigration to Russia: Inevitability and Prospective Inflows, Eurasian Geography and Economics, 51(1): 104-125

Ioffe, G. and Z. Zayonchkovskaya, 2011, Spatial Shifts in Population within the Moscow Region, Eurasian Geography and Economics, in press.

Lioubimtseva E, and Cole R. 2006. Uncertainties of climate change in arid environments of Central Asia. Reviews in Fisheries Science 14(1-2): 29-50.

Lioubimtseva E. and GM Henebry. 2009. Climate and environmental change in arid Central Asia: Impacts, vulnerability, and adaptations. Journal of Arid Environments, 73:963-977 doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2009.04.022.

Lioubimtseva, E. 2007. Impacts of climate change on the landscapes and human vulnerability of arid Central Asia. In: (R.G.H. Bunce, R.H.G. Jongman, L. Hojas, and S. Weel, eds.) 25 Years of Landscape Ecology: Science Principles in Practice. Proceedings of the 7th IALE World Congress 8-12 July, Wageningen, The Netherlands. IALE Publication series 4. p 936, volume 2.

Lioubimtseva, E. 2007. Possible changes in the carbon budget of arid and semi-arid Central Asia inferred from landuse/landcover analysis during 1981-2001. In: R Lal, M Suleimenov, BA Stewart, DO Hansen, P Doraiswami (eds.) Climate Change and Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration in Central Asia. New York: Taylor & Francis. pp. 441-452

Lioubimtseva, E. 2008. Climate Change in Turkmenistan, In: (S. G. Philander, ed.), Encyclopedia of Global Warming and Climate Change. New York: SAGE Reference, Golson Books.

Loveland, TR, MA Cochrane, and GM Henebry. 2008. Landsat still contributing to environmental research. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 23(4):182-183.

Using multiple remote sensing perspectives to identify and attribute land surface dynamics in Central Asia 2001–2013

Wright CK, KM de Beurs, ZK. Akhmadiyeva, PY Groisman, and GM Henebry. 2009. Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan. Environmental Research Letters, 4:045020.

Wright, CK, KM de Beurs, and GM Henebry. In review for NEESPI/MAIRS special issue. Combined analysis of land cover change and NDVI trends in the Northern Eurasian grain belt. Regional Environmental Change.

Project Research Area

Project Documents

Year	Type	Title
2015	Publications	Using multiple remote sensing perspectives to identify and attribute land surface dynamics in Central Asia 2001–2013
2011	Publications	Ioffe, G. and Z. Zayonchkovskaya, 2011, Spatial Shifts in Population within the Moscow Region, Eurasian Geography and Economics, in press.
2010	Publications	de Beurs KM, and GM Henebry. 2010. Spatio-temporal statistical methods for modeling land surface phenology. In: (IL Hudson and MR Keatley, eds.) Phenological Research: Methods for Environmental and Climate Change Analysis. Springer: New York. Chapter 9, pp. 177-208.
2010	Publications	de Beurs KM, and GM Henebry. 2010. A land surface phenology assessment of the northern polar regions using MODIS reflectance time series. Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing 36(Suppl. 1): S87–S110. [Special Issue on International Polar Year]
2010	Publications	Ioffe, G. and Z. Zayonchkovskaya, 2010 Immigration to Russia: Inevitability and Prospective Inflows, Eurasian Geography and Economics, 51(1): 104-125
2009	Publications	de Beurs KM, CK Wright, and GM Henebry. 2009. Dual scale trend analysis distinguishes climatic from anthropogenic effects on the vegetated land surface. Environmental Research Letters, 4:045012.
2009	Publications	Henebry, GM. 2009. Carbon in idle croplands. Nature 457:1089-1090.
2009	Publications	Lioubimtseva E. and GM Henebry. 2009. Climate and environmental change in arid Central Asia: Impacts, vulnerability, and adaptations. Journal of Arid Environments, 73:963-977 doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2009.04.022.
2009	Publications	Wright CK, KM de Beurs, ZK. Akhmadiyeva, PY Groisman, and GM Henebry. 2009. Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan. Environmental Research Letters, 4:045020.
2008	Publications	de Beurs KM, and GM Henebry. 2008a. Northern Annular Mode effects on the land surface phenologies of Northern Eurasia. Journal of Climate 21:4257-4279.
2008	Publications	Loveland, TR, MA Cochrane, and GM Henebry. 2008. Landsat still contributing to environmental research. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 23(4):182-183.
2008	Publications	Lioubimtseva, E. 2008. Climate Change in Turkmenistan, In: (S. G. Philander, ed.), Encyclopedia of Global Warming and Climate Change. New York: SAGE Reference, Golson Books.
2008	Publications	de Beurs KM, and GM Henebry. 2008b. War, drought, and phenology: Changes in the land surface phenology of Afghanistan since 1982. Journal of Land Use Science 3(2-3): 95-111.
2007	Publications	Henebry, GM, and M Doubková. 2007. Land surface phenologies sensed by cooler earthlight: how passive microwave image series can reveal vegetation dynamics appropriate for landscape monitoring. In: (R.G.H. Bunce, R.H.G. Jongman, L. Hojas, and S. Weel, eds.) 25 Years of Landscape Ecology: Science Principles in Practice. Proceedings of the 7th IALE World Congress 8-12 July, Wageningen, The Netherlands. IALE Publication series 4. pp 1071-1072, volume 2.
2007	Publications	Lioubimtseva, E. 2007. Possible changes in the carbon budget of arid and semi-arid Central Asia inferred from landuse/landcover analysis during 1981-2001. In: R Lal, M Suleimenov, BA Stewart, DO Hansen, P Doraiswami (eds.) Climate Change and Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration in Central Asia. New York: Taylor & Francis. pp. 441-452
2007	Publications	Lioubimtseva, E. 2007. Impacts of climate change on the landscapes and human vulnerability of arid Central Asia. In: (R.G.H. Bunce, R.H.G. Jongman, L. Hojas, and S. Weel, eds.) 25 Years of Landscape Ecology: Science Principles in Practice. Proceedings of the 7th IALE World Congress 8-12 July, Wageningen, The Netherlands. IALE Publication series 4. p 936, volume 2.
2006	Publications	Lioubimtseva E, and Cole R. 2006. Uncertainties of climate change in arid environments of Central Asia. Reviews in Fisheries Science 14(1-2): 29-50.
2006	Publications	Friedl, M, G Henebry, B Reed, A Huete, M White, J Morisette, R Nemani, X Zhang, and R Myneni. 2006. Land Surface Phenology. A Community White Paper requested by NASA. April 10.
2005	Publications	Doubková, M. and GM Henebry. 2005. Assessing land surface dynamics across the Nebraska Sand Hills using Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) data products. Pecora 16 Proceedings, paper 25.
	Publications	Wright, CK, KM de Beurs, and GM Henebry. In review for NEESPI/MAIRS special issue. Combined analysis of land cover change and NDVI trends in the Northern Eurasian grain belt. Regional Environmental Change.