Rice crops in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar have taken a hit from flooding and conflict this year, casting a shadow on a mostly sunny outlook for Southeast Asia’s output of the key grain as the region deals with other potential longer term supply troubles, farm officials and researchers say.

Poverty and hunger are stalking some rural communities in peninsular Southeast Asia, also called Indochina, as a result of lost crops, hitting populations still struggling to recover from lost income and other fallout from widespread economic disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Wheat prices in various markets spiked about 70% soon after last month’s outbreak of war in the region, a key supplier of grains and other commodities to the international market, and now are running 40% or more above February prices. A supply slowdown that might only bump up inflation in wealthy nations could create catastrophic outcomes in poorer ones, ranging from political unrest to deadly famines for areas that depend on Ukrainian and Russian crop imports.

Using the nighttime sensing capabilities of instruments on NOAA–NASA satellites, scientists from NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and the Universities Space Research Association (USRA) have observed the changes in light usage around Ukraine since January 2022. After a significant reduction of lights in March, power has slowly been restored and regular human activity has appeared to pick up in several parts of the country, particularly around the capital.

For more than a decade, Becker-Reshef , Sergii Skakun and other NASA-funded scientists have been developing innovative satellite-based techniques to monitor commodity crops such as wheat and maize in Ukraine. The interdisciplinary group collects and analyzes environmental, economic, and social science data in order to improve agriculture-related decision-making around the world. With the arrival of war, such tools could play a key role in anticipating and averting food shortages and famines.