Driving Forces of Change in Regional Carbon Stocks: Comparison of the Western Oregon, USA and St. Petersburg Region, Russia

Our past studies of carbon dynamics in forest ecosystems focused on two forest regions with contrasting land-use history and active ongoing changes in land management: Western Oregon, U.S.A. and St. Petersburg region in northwestern Russia. These regions represent distinct global trends in land-use, i.e. a move towards ecosystem management on public lands in developed market economies on one hand and on the other hand, the effects of profound macro-economic, institutional, and social transformation, that are common among economies in transition. The major goal of this new phase of research is to synthesize the results of past studies and to fully integrate the socio-economic drivers into the analysis of present and projected future LCLUC processes and associated changes in carbon stores. The hierarchical set of models that simulate regional carbon dynamics (StandCarb, MaxCarb, Harvest, and ForProd, all integrated in LandCarb) will be fully parameterized and tested in both regions. Then it will be linked with the Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM) using timber harvest as a primary link. We will use the linked models to analyze the effects of a recent decline in timber harvests in both regions with the emphasis on the temporal patterns of response of different ecosystem components and economic variables to change in land-use. Examination of how (and if) changes in driving forces of land-use during 1990’s and in preceding decades manifest themselves in current and future regional carbon dynamics can provide important evidence on the ability of humans to manipulate the processes of terrestrial carbon cycling at the decadal time-scale. Further, we will compare the role of environmental and economic factors in defining the bounds of change in regional carbon stocks 10-20-30 years into the future under alternative economic development scenarios.