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Evaluating the effects of institutional change on regional hydrometeorology: Assessing the vulnerability of the Eurasian semi-arid grain belt
Project Start Date
01/01/2005
Project End Date
01/01/2008
Project Call Name
Solicitation

Team Members:

Person Name Person role on project Affiliation
Geoffrey Henebry Principal Investigator Michigan State University, East Lansing, USA
Abstract

The 20th century witnessed some of the most extensive and abrupt LCLUC events in human history. In the mid-1950s, Khrushchev’s Virgin Lands Program rapidly expanded the intensive cultivation of grains across the Eurasian steppes. The collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s is now recognized as another widespread LCLUC event. The principal mechanism of LCLUC across this region was the disintegration of the institutions of centralized control over the agricultural sector. Without these controls and subsidies the agricultural sector contracted sharply during the 1990s throughout the Former Soviet Union and its client states. There were significant consequent changes in biogeophysical processes, including the onset and timing of land surface phenology (LSP) that links the ecological dynamics of the vegetated surface with the atmospheric dynamics of the boundary layer. Using the NASA MODIS products to detect trends in LSP from 2000 to 2007, we find a large expanse of highly significant negative trends located along the southern tier of the study area (Figure 1) with isolated patches of highly significant positive trends in the arid lands of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.

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Project Documents

Project Documents

Year Type Title
2009 NASA LCLUC Science Team Presentation Monitoring Vegetation Condition in Central Asia: An Overview
2009 NASA LCLUC Science Team Presentation LCLUC impacts on hydrology in central Asia
2006 NASA LCLUC Science Team Presentation Evaluating the Effects of Institutional Change on Regional Hydrometeorology: Assessing the Vulnerability of the Eurasian Semi-Arid Grain Belt
2005 Publications de Beurs KM, and GM Henebry. 2005b. Land surface phenology and temperature variation in the IGBP high-latitude transects. Global Change Biology 11(5): 779-790.
2005 Publications de Beurs KM, and GM Henebry. 2005a. A statistical framework for the analysis of long image time series. International Journal of Remote Sensing 26(8): 1551-1573.
2005 Publications de Beurs, KM, and GM Henebry. 2005c. A comparative analysis to understand the influence of dataset choice for land surface phenology research in the northern latitudes. Pecora 16 Proceedings, paper 23.
2005 Publications Henebry GM, KM de Beurs, and AA Gitelson. 2005. Land surface phenologies of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan between 1982 and 1999. Arid Ecosystems 11(26-27): 25-32.
2004 Publications Vińa A, GM Henebry, and AA Gitelson. 2004. Satellite monitoring of vegetation dynamics: Sensitivity enhancement by the Wide Dynamic Range Vegetation Index. Geophysical Research Letters 31:L04503, doi:10.1029/2003GL019034.
2004 Publications de Beurs, KM, GM Henebry, and AA Gitelson. 2004. Regional MODIS analysis of abandoned agricultural lands in the Kazakh steppes. Proceedings of IGARSS 2004, volume 2, pp. 739-741. DOI: 10.1109/IGARSS.2004.1368507
2004 Publications de Beurs KM, and GM Henebry. 2004b. Trend analysis of the Pathfinder AVHRR Land (PAL) NDVI data for the deserts of Central Asia. IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters 1(4): 282-286. doi:10.1109/LGRS.2004.834805.
2004 Publications de Beurs KM, and GM Henebry. 2004a. Land surface phenology, climatic variation, and institutional change: Analyzing agricultural land cover change in Kazakhstan. Remote Sensing of Environment 89(4):497-509 doi:10.1016/j.rse.2003.11.006.
2004 Publications de Beurs, KM, and GM Henebry. 2004c. Analyzing land cover change in Kazakhstan: Land surface phenology, climatic variation and sensor artifacts. ASPRS Proceedings, paper 14:1-12.
Year Type Title
2009 NASA LCLUC Science Team Presentation Monitoring Vegetation Condition in Central Asia: An Overview
2009 NASA LCLUC Science Team Presentation LCLUC impacts on hydrology in central Asia
2006 NASA LCLUC Science Team Presentation Evaluating the Effects of Institutional Change on Regional Hydrometeorology: Assessing the Vulnerability of the Eurasian Semi-Arid Grain Belt
2005 Publications de Beurs KM, and GM Henebry. 2005b. Land surface phenology and temperature variation in the IGBP high-latitude transects. Global Change Biology 11(5): 779-790.
2005 Publications de Beurs KM, and GM Henebry. 2005a. A statistical framework for the analysis of long image time series. International Journal of Remote Sensing 26(8): 1551-1573.
2005 Publications de Beurs, KM, and GM Henebry. 2005c. A comparative analysis to understand the influence of dataset choice for land surface phenology research in the northern latitudes. Pecora 16 Proceedings, paper 23.
2005 Publications Henebry GM, KM de Beurs, and AA Gitelson. 2005. Land surface phenologies of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan between 1982 and 1999. Arid Ecosystems 11(26-27): 25-32.
2004 Publications Vińa A, GM Henebry, and AA Gitelson. 2004. Satellite monitoring of vegetation dynamics: Sensitivity enhancement by the Wide Dynamic Range Vegetation Index. Geophysical Research Letters 31:L04503, doi:10.1029/2003GL019034.
2004 Publications de Beurs, KM, GM Henebry, and AA Gitelson. 2004. Regional MODIS analysis of abandoned agricultural lands in the Kazakh steppes. Proceedings of IGARSS 2004, volume 2, pp. 739-741. DOI: 10.1109/IGARSS.2004.1368507
2004 Publications de Beurs KM, and GM Henebry. 2004b. Trend analysis of the Pathfinder AVHRR Land (PAL) NDVI data for the deserts of Central Asia. IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters 1(4): 282-286. doi:10.1109/LGRS.2004.834805.
2004 Publications de Beurs KM, and GM Henebry. 2004a. Land surface phenology, climatic variation, and institutional change: Analyzing agricultural land cover change in Kazakhstan. Remote Sensing of Environment 89(4):497-509 doi:10.1016/j.rse.2003.11.006.
2004 Publications de Beurs, KM, and GM Henebry. 2004c. Analyzing land cover change in Kazakhstan: Land surface phenology, climatic variation and sensor artifacts. ASPRS Proceedings, paper 14:1-12.