Adaptation to Rapid Land-Use and Climate Changes on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia: Remote Sensing and Models for Analyzing Cumulative Effects

Start Date: 
06/01/2009
End Date: 
05/31/2012
Grant Number: 
08-LCLUC08-2-0026
Project Call: 
Land-Cover Land-Use Change
Science Theme: 
Detection and Monitoring of LCLUC
Carbon and Biogeochemical Cycle Impacts
Predictive Land Use Modeling
Drivers of Change
Regional Initiative: 
Northern Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative
Region: 
Asia
Siberia and Russian Far East
Solicitation: 
LCLUC-08
Distribution of Project Team Members Institutions
marker Principal Investigator   marker Co-Investigator   marker Collaborator   marker Postdoc Researcher   marker Graduate Student Researcher   marker Other
Team members: 
Person Name Person role on project Affiliation
Donald Walker Principal Investigator University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, United States
Gary Kofinas Co-Investigator University of Alaska-Fairbanks, Fairbanks, United States
Howard Epstein Co-Investigator University of Virginia, Charlottesville, United States
Josefino Comiso Co-Investigator NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, United States
Uma Bhatt Co-Investigator University of Alaska-Fairbanks, Fairbanks, United States
Vladimir Romanovsky Co-Investigator University of Alaska-Fairbanks, Fairbanks, United States
Bruce Forbes Collaborator University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, Finland
Pavel Orekhov Collaborator Cryosphere Institute SB RAS, Moscow, Russia


Abstract: 

We propose to develop predictive remote-sensing tools and models that can be used to help stakeholders plan for and adapt to the multiple forces of change that are affecting the Arctic. We focus on the Yamal region in northwest Siberia where a combination of gas development, reindeer herding, climate change, and extraordinarily sensitive permafrost landscapes are affecting the land and people. Our proposal has two components that analyze changes to the biophysical and social-ecological systems and several subcomponents: Component 1. Biophysical studies: climate/ sea-ice/ vegetation interactions. (a) Ground based observations will be conducted in the coldest northern part of the peninsula at Belyy Island and will complete a 700-km bioclimatic transect across the Yamal Peninsula. (b) Studies using remote sensing will analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of and sea-ice, land-surface temperatures, and vegetation greenness as indicated by the NDVI. (c) We will refine an arctic tundra vegetation change model (ArcVeg) to simultaneously examine the effects of climate change, reindeer foraging, and denudation by industrial development along the Arctic bioclimate gradient. Component 2. Social-ecological studies. (a) We will use determine the extent of the infrastructure and related disturbances using Quickbird imagery and the mid-decadal global land survey (GLS-2000). (b) We will conduct interviews with the nomadic Nentsy to provide a detailed picture of how the reindeer are using the rangelands. (c) An international workshop will address the topic of Arctic cumulative effects.

Project Documents

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