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The last urban frontier: Assessing drivers of urbanization and tradeoffs among social and ecosystem services associated with LCLUC in Africa
Project Start Date
01/01/2020
Project End Date
12/31/2024
Grant Number
80NSSC21K0313
Solicitation

Team Members:

Person Name Person role on project Affiliation
Jody C. Vogeler Principal Investigator Colorado State University  , Fort Collins , USA
Melinda J. Laituri Co-Investigator Colorado State University  , Fort Collins , USA
Melissa R. McHale Co-Investigator Colorado State University  , Fort Collins , USA
Noeleen Murray Collaborator University of Pretoria, Hatfield , South Africa
Orion Ritzert-Cardenas Graduate Student Researcher Colorado State University, Fort Collins, USA
Shahriar Shah Heydari Postdoc Researcher Colorado State University, Fort Collins , USA
Abstract

Urbanization continues to be one of the leading drivers of Land Cover Use Change (LCLUC) globally, although African countries appear to be at the forefront of these current urban expansion trends. In fact, predictions indicate that there will be more people living in cities in Africa in the next 30 years, than there are people living in cities right now around the world; with this increase in population growth it is also expected that we will see a 12-fold increase in urban land area. These predictions indicate that a majority of LCLUC globally will be transforming both natural and managed landscapes to residential neighborhoods, informal settlements, and intensely modified cityscapes. 

To date, the study of urbanization and its consequences and impacts has occurred at two very different scales and resolutions: (1) Large scale (regional, national, or global), lower resolution (≥30m pixels) urbanization patterns, and; (2) small scale (city, neighborhood, parcel), high resolution (1m pixels) studies of urban heterogeneity. One approach is good for understanding urban growth, while the other method’s strength enables scientists to analyze landscape quality, human-environmental interactions, and tradeoffs in ecosystem services. This project aims to merge these divergent characterizations of urbanization so that we can capture large scale urbanization processes, while still quantifying the heterogeneity and quality of urban land uses across three African case study countries: Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa. Furthermore, with this approach we can capture diverse multifunctional land uses within and around cities that provide a number of important ecosystem services to people near and far. 

To accomplish this goal, we will develop a framework for multi-resolution data fusions for a two tiered LCLUC mapping approach which will dissect the urban agglomeration into more refined density and infrastructure driven urban classes with fine resolution identification of features and resources within classes. Spatial products will support the assessment of United Nations defined Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicators, identify hotspots of urbanization-driven LCLUC, and aid in sustainable urban planning for equitable access to services. Through the use of widely-available data sources and the testing of frameworks for flexibility in adapting to sensor turnover, our approach will allow for the transferability of developed methods to additional countries and continents which are also experiencing rapid urban development and expansions with continuity into the future. Key project objectives will include:

1) Incorporate multiple moderate resolution data sources for the development of enhanced LCLUC classifications;

2) Identify “LCLUC hotspots” using the SDG indicator 11.3.1 and assess tradeoffs and synergies of social and ecosystem services impacted by LCLUC within and surrounding “hotspot” urban growth centers; 

3) Develop a moderate and VHR data fusion framework for fine resolution land cover/land use (LCLU) and change detection products within focal urban hotspots; 

4) Assess the equitable distribution of social and ecological services within focal urban hotspots to support policy and sustainable planning goals.

Project Research Area

Project Documents

Year Type Title
2024 Publications Cardenas-Ritzert, O.S., Vogeler, J.C., Shah Heydari, S., Fekety, P.A., Laituri, M. and McHale, M., (2024). Automated Geospatial Approach for Assessing SDG Indicator 11.3. 1: A Multi-Level Evaluation of Urban Land Use Expansion across Africa. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 13(7), p.226. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi13070226
2024 Publications Cardenas-Ritzert, O.S., Vogeler, J.C., Shah Heydari, S., Fekety, P.A., Laituri, M. and McHale, M.R., 2024. Effects of Land Use Data Spatial Resolution on SDG Indicator 11.3. 1 (Urban Expansion) Assessments: A Case Study Across Ethiopia. Sustainability, 16(22), p.9698. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16229698
2024 Publications Shah S. & Vogeler, J. (2024) Annual Land Use and Urban Land Cover maps: Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa 2016-2020.ORNL DAAC, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA. https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/2367
2024 Publications Shah Heydari, S., Vogeler, J.C., Cardenas-Ritzert, O., Filippelli, S.K., McHale, M., & Laituri, M. (2024) . Multi-tier land use and land cover mapping framework and its application in urbanization analysis in three African countries. Remote Sensing, 16(14), 2677. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16142677
Publications Cardenas-Ritzert, O.S.E., Shah Heydari, S., Rode, D.T., Filippelli, S., Laituri, M., McHale, M.R., Vogeler, J.C. In Review. A comparison of urban green and open space land cover characterizations based on high and very-high resolution imagery: A case study in Mekelle, Ethiopia and Polokwane, South Africa. Remote Sensing