LCLUC Synthesis: Ecosystem-Society Interactions on a Changing Mongolian Plateau

The Mongolian Plateau, including Inner Mongolia (IM) of China and Mongolia (MG), is a climatic change “hotspot” and a region of 2.62 million km2 with rapid ecological and socioeconomic changes. Based on the concept of the coupled natural and human system (CNH) and evolved from our previous studies, we have organized a team involved in many ongoing studies on the Plateau to address our objective of synthesizing our data and knowledge on ecosystem and social resilience to the changing climate and dynamic socioeconomic pressures placed on these fragile ecosystems. This will be done by modeling natural system (NS) and human system (HS) processes and dynamics as well as the interactions and feedbacks among them. We will use multiple data sources to document human and natural dynamics at multiple temporal and spatial scales for the Plateau. The overarching hypothesis of this study is that while climate change produced uneven pressures among ecosystems and societies across the Plateau over time, the socioeconomic changes and their disparities among administrative units further escalated the complex causal relationships among the elements of the NS and HS, which affected ecosystem health and society performance. Three specific tasks will be performed to achieve this objective: Task 1: Seamless integration of IM and MG datasets (Data Synthesis): Much of the necessary data for IM and MG has been collected and compiled through our previous projects. The data webpage will be easy to use and open to the public. This task will also produce a suite of data products for the Plateau. We will perform comprehensive analyses to identify the potential driving forces, underlying mechanisms, and functional differences of the current CNH systems at multiple spatial scales. A workshop will be organized in Year 1 in Ulaanbaatar to facilitate the engagement of all members and other relevant stakeholders. Task 2: Changes in time and space of the CNH systems (Knowledge Synthesis): We will examine the interactions and feedbacks among the elements of [climate], [social], [economic], [ecosystem], and [LCC] matrices for MG and IM by treating each as an independent CNH system to understand the divergence and co-evolutions for the past and future. Structural equation modeling (SEM), Bayesian modeling, and systems dynamics (SD) modeling will be used to test the four specific hypotheses. Task 3: Forecasting and adaptation for the Plateau (Modeling Synthesis): We will apply the SD model to predict the ecosystem functions and socioeconomic outcomes under alternative climates, socioeconomic shifts, and land use scenarios for assessing the vulnerability of the ecosystems and developing adaptation recommendations. Modifications to the analyses and scenarios will be made to reflect the broader knowledge of the system reflected in the group of workshop participants. The LCLUC program has supported three independent projects via its NEESPI program on climate adaptation (Chen, Brown, Zhuang). This synthesis project will integrate the long-term socioeconomic investigations of Dr. Brown’s team, biophysical studies of Dr. Chen’s team, ecosystem modeling of Zhuang’s team, and the studies of other active researchers on the Plateau for achieving our synthesis objectives. This synthesis will move beyond the work of our individual projects by developing a harmonized database on the socioeconomic and environmental conditions in IM and MG, a conceptual framework and new knowledge on the interactions between the NS and HS both within the local land system and through exogenous processes driving the two contrasting systems (IM, MG), and a systems dynamics model that represents key interactions between the HS and NS that includes details on the key differences between IM and MG. Our close working relationships with our collaborators will ensure the success of this project, despite the multi-national nature of this collaboration.